SRES is an acronym that stands for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It refers to a set of scenarios or projections developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to explore the possible future development of greenhouse gas emissions. The SRES was first introduced in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2000.
The SRES provides a framework for understanding different pathways of future emissions based on a range of social, economic, and technological factors. Its purpose is to assist policymakers and researchers in assessing potential climate change impacts and formulating mitigation and adaptation strategies.
The SRES comprises four main storylines, known as "marker scenarios," which outline different possible futures. These storylines include A1, A2, B1, and B2. Each storyline represents a different combination of demographic, economic, technological, and social trends that influence greenhouse gas emissions.
The A1 storyline assumes a future with rapid economic growth, global population peaking mid-century, and the emergence of advanced technologies, leading to a highly integrated global community. The A2 storyline depicts a more fragmented and regionally oriented world with slower economic growth and a higher population. B1 represents a future with converging globally focused societies characterized by sustainable development and environmental stewardship. Finally, B2 represents a world with more emphasis on local solutions and sustainability, but with slower economic growth.
The SRES provides a valuable tool for researchers and policymakers to understand the potential range of emissions and their implications for climate change, although it is worth noting that newer scenarios have been subsequently developed to provide more detailed and updated projections.
